匯添富基金邵佳民：2025，不進則退，勇往直前

投資是一個可以迅速檢驗認(rèn)知的地方，需要理性的分析，同時擯棄想贏怕輸?shù)木薮笸侠邸Ｍ顿Y又不太服從所謂的權(quán)威和經(jīng)驗，而會重點獎賞那些聰明勤奮、認(rèn)知到位又愿意正確承受風(fēng)險的選手。

我們看到世界發(fā)生了巨大的變化。移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在過去二十年里真正把地球變成了村子——飛機和輪船的速度并沒有翻倍，但網(wǎng)絡(luò)的力量卻深入到了每個角落。語言不再是巨大的障礙，爆炸性新聞頃刻之間傳遍全球。人工智能更是移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的高峰，引領(lǐng)著未來的投資主題。

百年未遇之大變局之下，預(yù)測的難度大大提升。比如特朗普上臺以后的關(guān)稅政策，對加拿大和墨西哥打響第一槍，有誰想到了？特朗普家族紛紛“發(fā)幣”，更是腦洞大開。美債融資成本的高漲的與人民幣融資成本的降低，留下了巨大的未來操作空間。黃金白銀為代表的貴金屬持續(xù)上漲，傳統(tǒng)分析框架已經(jīng)無法解釋，這深刻地反映出大家對美元為代表的信用貨幣越發(fā)不信任。中國表現(xiàn)出了巨大韌性，印度等國家都在重新審視與東方大國的關(guān)系。

最近若干年，我們在抱怨過年越發(fā)沒有“年味”，今年可能有過之而無不及。“年味”需要人群的集聚、時間的投入、對儀式感的重視。現(xiàn)在這一切變得成本高昂。隨著五零后與六零后對過年主導(dǎo)權(quán)的慢慢失去，春節(jié)正變得不是那么特別的一個長假。與此同時，資產(chǎn)的比價關(guān)系也發(fā)生了巨大變化。郵票早已跌落，白酒遭遇寒冬。某房地產(chǎn)巨頭在春節(jié)前的一股腦信息披露，代表著房地產(chǎn)面臨巨大的轉(zhuǎn)型。信息技術(shù)為代表的新質(zhì)生產(chǎn)力有巨大的吸金效應(yīng)，比特幣、黃金持續(xù)火爆，預(yù)示著下一輪財富分配的浪潮越演愈烈，資產(chǎn)管理行業(yè)不可不察。

我們不難看到幾個現(xiàn)象：首先，移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)沖擊之下，財富和機會正在向頭部公司集中，全世界向少數(shù)國家集中，向少數(shù)人集中。正是看到這一趨勢，中國堅持公平與效率并行的原則，社會保持了持續(xù)穩(wěn)定，贏得了發(fā)展先機。其次，全世界不存在“躺平”之說。“躺平”之所以感官強烈，是因為自媒體的渲染；試問哪個奮力拼搏的大佬會天天嚷嚷呢？第三，發(fā)現(xiàn)機會并采取行動非常重要。歐盟最近十年的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)不溫不火，但是柏林房價卻借助各種利好因素上漲了300%以上。

我們需要告訴自己什么呢？

1、不要被甚囂塵上的財富故事影響了對自身的判斷。

“OFFICIAL TRUMP”首秀一日之內(nèi)最高上漲便超過400倍，可是我聽到的真實故事卻是有人因此一夜之間500萬美元變成200萬美元。投資更多地是一種有準(zhǔn)備、有承受能力的埋伏，而不是孤注一擲式的倉促賭博。比特幣創(chuàng)出了新高，可是多少人在其中巨大的波動面前清倉出局。認(rèn)真地掂量一下自己，努力提高正確承擔(dān)風(fēng)險的能力，在各種復(fù)雜的關(guān)聯(lián)中思考下一個機會在哪里，可能更加重要。美國先從美洲開始“發(fā)難”，瞄準(zhǔn)拉丁美洲的非法移民，而不是越過太平洋，這就給我們有競爭力的出口企業(yè)更多的布局機會。但是拉長看，美國中期趨勢可能仍是“美國優(yōu)先”。

2、注意若干的方法。

一是認(rèn)真分析哪些資產(chǎn)被真正低估和高估。比如前幾年商業(yè)地產(chǎn)與住宅物業(yè)的對比；比如去年三季度以來的硬科技企業(yè)；比如現(xiàn)在的黃金。美股上漲了那么多年，現(xiàn)在還需要繼續(xù)壓上重注嗎？中國優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)一直會這么便宜嗎？氣候變化、環(huán)保搖擺、“左右”之爭，既體現(xiàn)撕裂，又蘊藏機會。

二是要敢于下場，并且看準(zhǔn)下重手。全世界范圍的流動性充裕，導(dǎo)致有價值的核心資產(chǎn)，價值重估的周期在縮短。

三是制定針對波動的預(yù)案。信息傳播有自我加強效應(yīng)，資產(chǎn)價格也會“不撞南墻不回頭”、“不見兔子不撒鷹”。前面說過，全世界優(yōu)秀的人其實和我們一樣努力，那么我們不經(jīng)風(fēng)雨，哪里會見彩虹？

3、向優(yōu)秀的人學(xué)習(xí)。

我們或許要重新思考，人與人之間的差距之大，有時候是否可能超過人與猴子的差距。另一句流行的話是：即使全速前進，也可能是原地踏步。我們擺脫原地踏步的最大路徑是向優(yōu)秀的人學(xué)習(xí)，并在若干領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)“青出于藍(lán)而勝于藍(lán)”。這方面，DEEPSEEK給我們做出了示范。

2025是中國的蛇年，也是45的平方。

2025: No Progress is Regression, Press Onward with Courage

Shao Jiamin

Investment is a place where cognition can be quickly tested. It requires rational analysis and the abandonment of the huge burden of wanting to win and fearing to lose. Investment is not very obedient to so-called authority and experience, and focuses on rewarding those players who are smart, diligent, cognition-aware and willing to take risks correctly.

We have seen great changes in the world. Mobile Internet has truly turned the earth into a village in the past 20 years - the speed of airplanes and ships has not doubled, but the power of the Internet has penetrated into every corner. Language is no longer a huge obstacle, and explosive news spreads around the world in an instant. Artificial intelligence is the peak of mobile Internet, leading the investment theme of the future.

Under the great changes that have not been seen in a century, the future holds more uncertainties. For example, Trump's tariff policy after taking office fired the first shot against Canada and Mexico. Who thought of it? The Trump family "issued coins" one after another, which is even more brain-opening. The rising cost of US debt financing and the decline in the cost of RMB financing have left huge room for future operations. Precious metals represented by gold and silver are rising in both negative and positive aspects, which can no longer be explained by the traditional analysis framework. This deeply reflects that people are increasingly distrusting credit currencies represented by the US dollar. China has shown great resilience, and even India has to re-examine its relationship with the Eastern power.

In recent years, we have been complaining that the Chinese New Year is becoming less and less "flavorful", and this year may be even worse. The "flavor" requires the gathering of people, the investment of time, and the emphasis on the sense of ritual. Now all this has become costly. With the gradual loss of the dominance of the Chinese New Year by the post-50s and post-60s, the Spring Festival is becoming a not-so-special long holiday. At the same time, the price ratio of assets has also changed dramatically. Stamps have long fallen, and liquor has encountered a cold winter. The information disclosure of one real estate giant before the Spring Festival represents a huge transformation facing real estate. The huge money-absorbing effect of the new quality productivity represented by information technology, and the continued popularity of Bitcoin and gold, indicate that the next wave of wealth distribution is intensifying, and the asset management industry cannot ignore it.

It is not difficult to see several phenomena: First, under the impact of mobile Internet, wealth and opportunities are concentrating on leading companies, a few countries and a few people around the world. It is precisely because of this trend that China adheres to the principle of fairness and efficiency, and the society has maintained sustained stability and won the first opportunity for development. Secondly, there is no such thing as "lying flat" in the world. The reason why "lying flat" is so strong is because of the exaggeration of self-media; which big boss who works hard will shout every day? Third, it is very important to find opportunities and take action. The economic data of the European Union in the past decade has been tepid, completely overshadowed by China and the United States, but Berlin's housing prices have risen by more than 300% with the help of various favorable factors.

What do we need to tell ourselves?

1. Don't let the wealth stories that are rampant affect your judgment of yourself.

The highest increase of "OFFICIAL TRUMP" in one day was more than 400 times, but the real story I heard was that someone turned 5 million US dollars into 2 million US dollars overnight. Wealth is more of an ambush with preparation and tolerance, rather than a hasty gamble of all-out bets. Bitcoin has hit a new high, but how many people have cleared their positions in the face of huge fluctuations. It may be more important to carefully weigh yourself, strive to improve your ability to take risks correctly, and think about where the next opportunity is in various complex connections. The United States started to "clean up the door" in the Americas, targeting illegal immigrants in Latin America, instead of crossing the Pacific Ocean, which gave our competitive export companies more layout opportunities. But in the long run, the medium-term trend of the United States is still "America First".

2. Pay attention to several methods.

First, carefully analyze which assets are truly undervalued and overvalued. For example, the comparison between commercial real estate and residential properties in the past few years; for example, hard technology companies since the third quarter of last year; for example, gold now. The U.S. stock market has been bullish for so many years, do we still need to continue to bet heavily? Will China's high-quality assets always be so cheap? Climate change, environmental protection swings, and the "left-right" dispute reflect both divisions and opportunities.

Second, we must dare to get out and see the heavy hand. The abundant liquidity worldwide has led to a shortening of the cycle of revaluation of valuable core assets.

The third is to formulate a plan for fluctuations. Information dissemination has a self-reinforcing effect, and asset prices will "not turn back until they hit the south wall" and "not release the eagle until they see the rabbit". As mentioned earlier, the best people in the world are actually working as hard as we are, so how can we see the rainbow without going through the wind and rain?

3. Learn from excellent people.

We must admit that the gap between people is so big that it may sometimes exceed the gap between people and monkeys. A popular saying is: Even if you move forward at full speed, you may still be standing still. The biggest way for us to get rid of standing still is to learn from excellent people and achieve "the younger generation is better than the older generation" in several fields. In this regard, DEEPSEEK has set an example for us.

2025 is the Chinese Year of the Snake, which is also the square of 45.

風(fēng)險提示：基金有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。文章涉及的觀點和判斷僅代表我們對當(dāng)前時點的看法，基于市場環(huán)境的不確定性和多變性，所涉觀點和判斷后續(xù)可能發(fā)生調(diào)整或變化。本文僅用于溝通交流之目的，不構(gòu)成任何投資建議。